KNEB

Now that corn planting is mostly in the rearview, attention turns to growing season climate conditions and what that means for corn production in 2023.

Planting Progress & Crop Conditions

The USDA reports 92% of corn is thought to be planted as of May 28, 2023, a notable jump from 81% a week prior and ahead of the 84% five-year average. In most states planting progressed very quickly. In other states, where planting initially progressed more slowly, corn planting has now surpassed or nearly caught up to the five-year average.

With 72% of corn estimated to be emerged, the USDA reported 2023 corn conditions for the first time this week with 69% rated Good or Excellent (G/E) and 5% rated Poor or Very Poor (P/VP). In comparison, the first weekly corn crop condition ratings were 73% G/E with 4% P/VP in 2022, and 72% G/E with 5% P/VP in 2021. The three largest corn producing states – Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska – all have notably lower estimated G/E as compared with the first condition ratings a year ago.

Abnormally Dry Areas Expand Across the Corn Belt

While drought conditions across the United States have improved notably over the past year, the trend across the corn belt is reversing. Based on the U.S. Drought Monitor released on June 1, 2023, just 19.0% of the contiguous U.S. is in D1 to D4 drought conditions, compared to 49.3% a year ago. However, when the abnormally dry "D0" drought is also included the improvement is less notable and trending in the opposite direction. Currently 50.1% of the mainland is in D0-D4 drought, a jump from 40.6% a week ago. While in recent years drought conditions have impacted parts of the corn belt, the current situation is largely across the entire corn belt. The Midwest region that includes three of the four largest corn producing states jumped to 66.2% in D0 to D4 drought from 27.0% a week ago. Meanwhile corn producing states from the high plains to Texas continue to battle areas of severe drought that persist in addition to widespread abnormally dry areas.

Climate Patterns and Corn Yields

In March, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported the end of La Niña, a phase of the recurring climate patterns in the tropical Pacific that influence climate patterns in various parts of the world including the United States. While currently in the transition phase, in May NOAA forecast a greater than 90% chance of El Niño conditions developing within the next couple of months. El Niño tends to bring favorable growing conditions for crops in the Midwest, so it is a welcome transition for farmers after three growing seasons of La Niña, all of which were at or below trendline yield years for U.S. corn. Since 1990, most years with an El Niño dominated growing season have had corn yields above trendline, often exceeding a standard deviation above trend and never lower than a standard deviation below trend. Corn yields in years with a La Niña dominated growing season tend to be near or below the trendline.

What Does This Mean for U.S. Corn Production?

Here are three takeaways related to climate conditions and U.S. corn production in 2023.